GLOBAL CHALLENGES

NSF Project Demonstrates New Space Weather Prediction Capability

Salvatore Salamone | Date: 09-01-10 | Comments

Several groups are teaming up to create the first system for real-time forecasting of space weather. The project could help predict events like the Aurora Borealis and prevent solar-activity-caused blackouts on Earth.

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NSF Project Demonstrates New Space Weather Prediction Capability - Perfect Storm, Perfect Timing

The timing for AMPERE could not be better. As part of the sun's natural solar cycle, scientists expect a spike in activity in the next few years. As such, better forecasting and monitoring capabilities will be needed.

The interest in having these improved capabilities comes from many sectors. The reason: In some cases, the consequences of solar flares and coronal discharges (e.g., the beauty of an auroral display) seem benign. Yet, they can have negative effects.

For example, virulent activity pushes auroras into lower latitudes. That was the case with a large eruption earlier this August. Rather than being confined to Alaska, Greenland and extreme northern Canada, the aurora made its way to Wisconsin, Denmark, New York and the suburbs of Boston.

Plot of auroral activity (source: NOAA/Space Weather Prediction Center).

When such large eruptions occur, people who do not ordinarily see an aurora get a spectacular light show in the sky. The downside to an aurora's beauty is that many ground systems are also impacted by increased solar activity and could greatly benefit from timely and accurate space weather predictions. Particularly susceptible are the electric power grid, and to a lesser extent, buried gas and oil pipelines.

Following a solar event's occurrence, electric currents in the upper atmosphere can vary greatly. These variations induce currents, called geomagnetically induced currents (GICs), in conductors on Earth's surface. GICs can cause problems, including increased corrosion of pipeline steel and damage to power grid transformers. For example, in March 1989, during an unusually high level of solar activity, the entire Hydro Quebec system experienced a GIC-triggered blackout. The activity also destroyed a $12 million transformer at a New Jersey nuclear power plant.

Better information might help prevent this type of damage in the future. To avoid outages, companies can minimize potential problems through better monitoring and equipment protection. For example, knowing that a surge is coming, grid operators could isolate a transformer from the grid or reduce its load.

The trick is to know when to take these preventative steps. For that reason, getting advance notice of impending activity is essential.

For years, grid operators would rely on the equivalent of a threat level report. The National Weather Service's Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) of the National Oceanic & Administration (NOAA) monitors solar activity and provides a solar disturbance forecasting service.

The forecasting is based on monitoring a number of indicators of solar activity, such as sun spots and solar flares. Using these indicators and other information, the SWPC categorizes the level of geomagnetic disturbance and passes along information about the severity to interested parties and issues alerts when major events are under way.

Such alerts give grid operators a heads-up. Oftentimes, disturbances on the sun can be detected a day or more before the impact is felt here on Earth. In that way, companies can at least be ready to take action if a problem occurs. The shortcoming of this approach is that it does not indicate exactly what's happening in the atmosphere now. That's where the real-time forecasts of AMPERE could play a role.

However, a lot more work needs to be done. The AMPERE program simply validates the potential for using sensors on the LEO Iridium satellites to provide unprecedented visibility over the entire Earth's surface and its atmosphere. The next step for the APL scientists will be to develop the analytical tools to evaluate and forecast severe geomagnetic storms in space. This phase of the project is on schedule, and the first release of AMPERE space weather products to the scientific community is planned for the fourth quarter of 2010.