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Web 2.0 Accurately Predicts Election Results

Rebecca Kutzer-Rice | Date: 11-05-10 | Comments

Twitter and Facebook played a major role in the 2010 midterm elections. The social media sites covered everything from campaigning to predicting results and encouraging citizens to vote.

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Web 2.0 Accurately Predicts Election Results
Many new voting technologies have been implemented (and not implemented) this election season. But perhaps the most widespread were those from social media Websites.

On Election Day 2008, Facebook implemented an "I Voted" button, which 5 million users over the age of 18 selected. For this year's midterm elections, that number of Facebook voters increased to 12 million users.

The Facebook "I Voted" button was clicked by more than 12 million individuals.

Although analyses are still being compiled, one trend is clear: Social media Websites played a large role in this election�for everything from campaigning and predicting outcomes to encouraging citizens to vote.

Most 'Liked' Candidates Win

Nearly every candidate in the election had a Facebook fan page, where people could post comments or links and the candidate (or staff) could respond. According to Facebook, the number of fans a candidate had accurately predicted his/her chance at victory. In 74 percent of House and 81 percent of Senate races, the candidate whose "Like" button had been hit the most won the race.

In Ohio, for example, Republican Rob Portman won the Senate seat over Democratic challenger Lee Fisher. While Portman had 25,550 Facebook fans, Fisher had just 7,487. Likewise, West Virginia Democrat Joe Manchin III�who had 6,595 fans�beat John Raese, whom 4,500 had liked.

Many candidates�both the winners and the conceders�sent out election-night messages to their Facebook fans. "Thank you West Virginia!" wrote Manchin.

"While it didn't turn out the way we hoped tonight," posted Fisher," we're all very proud of the campaign we ran together."

After the election results came in, Joe Manchin III sent a Facebook message out to his many fans.

Although Facebook accurately predicted most of the elections, some of the data was incorrect. For instance, Christine O'Donnell, Meg Whitman and Sharron Angle all had many more fans than their opponents, but lost.

In addition to predicting election results, Facebook encouraged members to post their own voting stories and offered a polling place locator to help users find out where to go.

Next: A Nation of Tweets >>

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