Technology products follow a predictable curve. There
is a technology development that becomes a marketing success and
eventually becomes just one more checkbox in a product specification
sheet. Remember when Web browsers were single-purpose software packages
to just browse the Internet? Now they are central computing systems
with e-mail, security and increasingly social network attributes. So
what are the next standalone products destined to become just part of
the feature set? And how long will it take? Here are 10 guesses.
1. Virtualization. This was clearly a
breakthrough standalone product developed in large part by VMware in 1998. Now you would be hard pressed to find an operating system
that does not offer some level of virtualization. Certainly within five
years all popular operating systems will be able to operate and
co-operate in a virtualized environment. Virtualization will be
checkbox rather than the main attribute.
2. Television. It used to be a big deal to be
able to watch television programs on your laptop. Now as digital TV
continues to grow, you'll be watching your favorite programs when you want and on the
device you happen to have in hand. This might take longer than five
years simply because the big networks have to figure out how not to
suffer the same advertising fate as big city daily newspapers. Watching
television will be a checkbox on the product sheet.
3. Texting turnoff. Texting and driving is
dangerous. Legislators are busy creating laws to ban texting and
vendors are busy building systems that detect and turn off texting capabilities while driving. The
automobile industry has been suffering mightily but just as air bags
became a requirement, you'll see some sort of requirement for a system
that shuts down texting for drivers. Five years.
4. Unified Communications. The ability for an
employee to decide whether to do a voice call, add data or build a
video call at the push of a button from anywhere is here now for some
companies and vendors. Again, within five years all communications will
be unified in the business space and UC will become what we all do rather than a special purpose marketing product.
5. 24/7 Internet access from anywhere. Internet access is still a mix of wired, wireless, hotspots and
connector cards. Users who just want to spend $50 a month for raw
Internet access are still going to be frustrated. I think within three
years, that $50 access from which you can pick your own VOIP phone,
video viewing and always-on Internet access will be yours for the
purchase. The Mifi is an early, still too early, model. The fact that the access will be always available, anywhere will be checkbox.
6. Your phone is your office. Apple is leading
the way here in building out an application platform which will make
all your business applications available in a fast, attractive,
intuitive package. Within five years there will be nothing you can't do
on your portable device that you can do in the office. Business
application developers will be designing applications with the mobile
device in mind. Of course the application will be available on all
mobile devices, it will be just a checkbox on a product spec sheet.
7. All-day batteries. This might take longer,
not because the technology is out of reach, but the manufacturing base
moves slowly. But companies such as Boston Power are leading the way. All-day computing on one battery charge will be
here in four to five years and will be a product spec check off.
8. No netbooks, no laptops, just computing. The
division between what is a laptop and what is a netbook is already
strained. That computing device in your briefcase will be
price-differentiated by access requirements, what type of computing you
perform and whether you are a content developer (as in your own
television channel producer) or a content consumer looking for light
and cheap access. I'm not sure what that device will be called but the
artificial divisions between netbooks and laptops are already
disappearing.
9. eBooks. I
still find it difficult to believe that the development of tablet
devices (probably led by Apple) won't displace single-purpose devices such as Amazon's Kindle. Just
as multifunction devices incorporating scanning, printing and fax
displaced single-purpose devices, tablets with the ability to perform a
range of functions will overpower eBooks within five years. You might
buy a tablet with a screen more geared to eBook reading, but the
ability to download and read a book on your tablet will be a checkbox
item.
10. Security. This may be wishful thinking but
security and privacy should be user-controlled attributes. You already
see some evidence of this particularly on Web browsers where you can
adjust security settings. Of course the problem in browsers is those
settings can give you a false sense of security that hackers can use to
their advantage. I think it will require at least another generation of
browsers, operating systems and hosted applications to make strong
security and privacy control a checkbox item that really works.
